Ongoing advancements in drilling and completion technology are redefining well performance across the Williston Basin. Longer laterals, more efficient completions and disciplined capital deployment have raised the economic bar for what a “decent” well looks like today.
Break-even production levels have long been achievable in the core of McKenzie, Dunn, Williams and Mountrail counties, but achieving sufficient production to recover invested capital and generate profit in areas like Divide and Burke counties, or in the tertiary reaches of northern Mountrail County, southern Dunn County and the far western McKenzie County, has historically proven more difficult. The lack of drilling in those areas since 2013 is evidence of the economics. For example, many Bakken/Three Forks wells drilled in Burke County between 2009 and 2012 have produced less than 100,000 barrels cumulatively, despite nearly two decades of production history.
That paradigm appears to be changing, however, companies like Formentera and Phoenix Operating have made an aggressive push into some of these previously undeveloped townships over several years using extended three-mile laterals and modern completion techniques to support their efforts. Formentera has even drilled several successful horizontal wells into the Madison formation. Early Bakken/Three Forks results, when compared with past efforts, show higher production. While the number of examples remains limited, several wells have exceeded production levels historically considered sufficient to recover costs.
Formentera’s Lar1 26-2 well in Burke County has already produced nearly 170,000 barrels of oil in its first year. The Phoenix Operating Pladson 33-28-21-1H in northeastern Mountrail County meanwhile has reported production of more than 200,000 barrels of oil over the same time frame. Similar production patterns have been observed in other areas previously considered lower-tier mineral acreage. Brand new three-mile wells, and improved two-mile efforts, are producing hundreds of thousands of barrels in less than 24 months. The Bakken has always been considered an oil field dependent on continuous technical improvement, and this further reflects that trend. As the technology employed by the operators improves, the economic health of the Williston Basin and its mineral owners improves along with it.
Regardless of production improvements, project economics remain highly sensitive to commodity prices. A barrel of West Texas Intermediate was selling for $83 as recently as July 2024, less than two years ago. As of Feb. 27, 2026, that same barrel was 20% cheaper, but the cost to produce it has gone up. Recent pricing improvements over the past couple of months, about $66 per barrel on Feb. 27, 2026, from a low of $56 on Dec. 15, 2025, have occurred, but much of that improvement is likely to be temporary.
Market analysts have cited a geopolitical risk premium come into the market with tensions between Iran and the United States running high. The actions taken by the Trump administration against Venezuela give reason to believe that the tensions with Iran are different now than at any time in the past 40 years. A hot war would likely disrupt oil transiting the Persian Gulf, so in spite of its low probability, today’s higher price is likely to persist for only as long as the U.S. Navy is flexing its muscles in the region. Most analysts from places like the Energy Information Administration and JPMorgan Chase continue to forecast that WTI will retrace to its December 2025 lows and stay there throughout 2026 and possibly into 2027.
The rationale is simple. Global demand for oil is expected to grow by less than 1 million barrels per day this year, while supplies are projected to grow by nearly 2 million barrels per day thanks in large part to the incredibly productive offshore fields in Guyana and Brazil. U.S. onshore shale will continue to see new development, but at a pace that is commensurate with the pricing environment. Some analysts note that every lateral that goes undrilled this year and next may later be drilled with superior technology and likely to drive better returns for operators and royalty owners alike.